Demand Forecasting & Inventory Decision Support
Weekly multi-SKU forecasts turned into inventory risk and replenishment signals — with the uncertainty kept visible.
Synthetic weekly demand · chronological validation · one frozen test period
Honest Evaluation
The more complex model did not automatically win.
Seasonal Naive produced the best aggregate WAPE on the frozen test period; the validation-selected combination did not generalize better. The result is retained rather than tuned away.
The Setup
- Candidates
- Seasonal Naive · damped ETS · global gradient boosting
- Selection
- Per SKU, by validation error with a simplicity tie-break
- Decision rule
- Weekly review · lead-time demand, safety stock, reorder point
Try It
- 12-SKU scenario, or upload a validated weekly CSV
- Triage SKUs by current stockout risk
- Forecast history, uncertainty ranges, backtest metrics
- Change lead time, service level, demand growth
- Trace any recommendation back to its calculation
Not In Scope
On-hand inventory only — no open purchase orders. No holding cost, shelf life, order minimums, supplier capacity, or ERP execution. Forecast ranges summarize observed backtest error, not future demand.